Climate-Related Risk Modeling of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt Disease Incidence in the Cropland Area of Rwanda.

Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is a major threat to banana production in Rwanda, causing up to 100% yield loss. There are no biological or chemical control measures, and little is known about the potential direction and magnitude of its spread; hence, cultural control efforts are reactive rather than proactive. In this study, we assessed BXW risk under current and projected climates to guide early warning and control by applying the maximum entropy (Maxent) model on 1,022 georeferenced BXW datapoints and 20 environmental variables. We evaluated the significance of variables and mapped potential risk under current and future climates to assess spatial dynamics of the disease distribution. BXW occurrence was reliably predicted (mean validation AUC values ranging from 0.79 to 0.85). Precipitation of the coldest quarter, average maximum monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation were the strongest predictors, which were responsible for 22.1, 13, 12.6, and 9.4% of the observed incidence variability, respectively, while mean temperature of the coldest quarter had the highest gain in isolation. Furthermore, the most susceptible regions (western, northern, and southern Rwanda) were characterized by elevation (1,350 to 2,000 m), annual precipitation (900 to 1,700 mm), and average temperature (14 to 20°C), among other variables, suggesting that a consistent, rainy, and warm climate is more favorable for BXW spread. Under the future climate, the risk was predicted to increase and spread to other regions. We conclude that climate change will likely exacerbate BXW-related losses of banana land area and yield under the influence of temperature and moisture. Our findings support evidence-based targeting of extension service delivery to farmers and national early warning for timely action.

Circular bioeconomy in African food systems: What is the status quo? Insights from Rwanda, DRC, and Ethiopia.

Increasing global food insecurity amidst a growing population and diminishing production resources renders the currently dominant linear production model insufficient to combat such challenges. Hence, a circular bioeconomy (CBE) model that ensures more conservative use of resources has become essential. Specifically, a CBE model that focuses on recycling and reusing organic waste is essential to close nutrient loops and establish more resilient rural-urban nexus food systems. However, the CBE status quo in many African food systems is not established. Moreover, scientific evidence on CBE in Africa is almost inexistent, thus limiting policy guidance to achieving circular food systems. Using a sample of about 2,100 farmers and consumers from key food value chains (cassava in Rwanda, coffee in DRC, and bananas in Ethiopia), we explored existing CBE practices; awareness, knowledge, and support for CBE practices; consumers' opinions on eating foods grown on processed organic waste (CBE fertilizers), and determinants of such opinions. We analysed data in Stata, first descriptively, and then econometrically using the ordered logistic regression, whose proportional odds assumption was violated, thus resorting to the generalized ordered logistic regression. Results show that communities practice aspects of CBE, mainly composting, and are broadly aware, knowledgeable, supportive of CBE practices, and would broadly accept eating foods grown CBE fertilizers. Households with heads that used mobile phones, or whose heads were older, or married, or had a better education and agricultural incomes were more likely to strongly agree that they were knowledgeable and supportive of CBE practices and would eat CBE foods (foods grown on processed organic waste). However, the reverse was true for households that were severely food insecure or lived farther from towns. Rwandan and Ethiopian households compared to DRC were less likely to eat CB foods. Policies to stimulate CBE investments in all three countries were largely absent, and quality scientific evidence to guide their development and implementation is currently insufficient.

Characterizing cassava farmer typologies and their seed sourcing practices to explore opportunities for economically sustainable seed business models in Rwanda.

The overdependency on local cassava varieties and informal seed sources by farmers in Rwanda has contributed to the spread of cassava viral diseases. The use of improved planting materials made available through formal seed sources, that assure seed quality, is one way to prevent future disease outbreaks. In order to increase the availability of, and farmers access to, such materials there is increasing interest to develop seed business models. This study aims to understand seed sourcing practices of different farm typologies to inform the development of tailored seed business models. A total of 390 farmers were interviewed and the collected data was analyzed into clusters, resulting in seven farm typologies. Seed sourcing strategies, seed replacement dynamics and purchasing behavior of these typologies were explored via a seed tracing study. We find that more commercial oriented farmers have better access to formal seed sources. Nevertheless, the majority of farmers in all typologies accessed new varieties and quality cassava seed via informal channels. At both formal and informal sources, cash investments in seed were mainly made by the categories of better-off farmers, and were one-time investments to acquire a new variety. Based on farmers current seed sourcing practices, clarifications on the differences between farmers and their willingness-to-pay, the roles of seed degeneration, cost-benefit analysis, value propositions and profit formulas seem important requirements for the further development of viable cassava seed business models. We conclude that tailoring seed business models can have a high potential as it acknowledges differences among farmers, but that careful coordination is needed to ensure that one approach or intervention does not contrast with and/or undermine the others.

Micro-livestock in smallholder farming systems: the role, challenges and opportunities for cavies in South Kivu, eastern DR Congo.

Livestock play multiple roles for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Mixed crop-livestock systems are common in South Kivu, eastern DR Congo, but herd sizes are small and numbers of large livestock (i.e. cattle) have declined, due to high population density, recent conflicts and extreme poverty. Over half of the farmers keep cavies, a type of micro-livestock fitting the circumstances of smallholders and a valuable asset especially for the poorest households. To characterize cavy husbandry practices, detailed monthly on-farm data on cavy numbers, weights, herd dynamics and feeding practices were collected over 15 months and from households in two contrasting sites in South Kivu. Cavy herds contained on average 10 animals and strongly varied in size over time and between households. The main reasons for keeping cavies were meat consumption, especially for children, and the opportunity to generate petty cash. A large difference was observed in adult cavy live weights between the sites (an average of 0.6 and 1.0 kg per animal in Kabamba and Lurhala, respectively) and attributed to differences in cavy husbandry and genetics. In both sites, quantities of fresh fodder on offer were larger than fodder demand by 50-100%, but no correlation was found between amount of fodder on offer and cavy weight. Farmers faced several constraints to cavy production, including substantial declines in cavy herd size due to predation or theft and a lack of knowledge regarding breeding and feeding. Hence, the introduction of cages to limit mortality and fodder cultivation to improve feed quality were opportunities for improving cavy production. Overall, micro-livestock present a promising entry-point for development initiatives, also outside DR Congo, because of their potential to decrease poverty and improve human nutrition.

Factors influencing participation dynamics in research for development interventions with multi-stakeholder platforms: A metric approach to studying stakeholder participation.

Multi-stakeholder platforms have become mainstream in projects, programmes and policy interventions aiming to improve innovation and livelihoods systems, i.e. research for development interventions in low- and middle-income contexts. However, the evidence for multi-stakeholder platforms' contribution to the performance of research for development interventions and their added value is not compelling. This paper focuses on stakeholder participation as one of the channels for multi-stakeholder platforms' contribution to the performance of research for development interventions, i.e. stakeholder participation. It uses a quantitative approach and utilizes descriptive statistics and ARIMA models. It shows that, in three Ugandan multi-stakeholder platform cases studied, participation increased both in nominal and in unique terms. Moreover, participation was rather cyclical and fluctuated during the implementation of the research for development interventions. The study also shows that, in addition to locational and intervention factors such as type of the area along a rural-urban gradient targeted by the intervention and human resources provided for multi-stakeholder platform implementation, temporal elements such as phases of research for development intervention objectives and the innovation development process play significant roles in influencing participation. The study concludes that contribution of multi-stakeholder platforms to the performance of research for development projects, programs, policies and other initiatives is constrained by locational and temporal context and conditional on the participation requirements of the objectives pursued by research for development intervention.

Effects of multi-stakeholder platforms on multi-stakeholder innovation networks: Implications for research for development interventions targeting innovations at scale.

Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) have been playing an increasing role in interventions aiming to generate and scale innovations in agricultural systems. However, the contribution of MSPs in achieving innovations and scaling has been varied, and many factors have been reported to be important for their performance. This paper aims to provide evidence on the contribution of MSPs to innovation and scaling by focusing on three developing country cases in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Rwanda. Through social network analysis and logistic models, the paper studies the changes in the characteristics of multi-stakeholder innovation networks targeted by MSPs and identifies factors that play significant roles in triggering these changes. The results demonstrate that MSPs do not necessarily expand and decentralize innovation networks but can lead to contraction and centralization in the initial years of implementation. They show that some of the intended next users of interventions with MSPs-local-level actors-left the innovation networks, whereas the lead organization controlling resource allocation in the MSPs substantially increased its centrality. They also indicate that not all the factors of change in innovation networks are country specific. Initial conditions of innovation networks and funding provided by the MSPs are common factors explaining changes in innovation networks across countries and across different network functions. The study argues that investigating multi-stakeholder innovation network characteristics targeted by the MSP using a network approach in early implementation can contribute to better performance in generating and scaling innovations, and that funding can be an effective implementation tool in developing country contexts.

Social network analysis of multi-stakeholder platforms in agricultural research for development: Opportunities and constraints for innovation and scaling.

Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) are seen as a promising vehicle to achieve agricultural development impacts. By increasing collaboration, exchange of knowledge and influence mediation among farmers, researchers and other stakeholders, MSPs supposedly enhance their 'capacity to innovate' and contribute to the 'scaling of innovations'. The objective of this paper is to explore the capacity to innovate and scaling potential of three MSPs in Burundi, Rwanda and the South Kivu province located in the eastern part of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In order to do this, we apply Social Network Analysis and Exponential Random Graph Modelling (ERGM) to investigate the structural properties of the collaborative, knowledge exchange and influence networks of these MSPs and compared them against value propositions derived from the innovation network literature. Results demonstrate a number of mismatches between collaboration, knowledge exchange and influence networks for effective innovation and scaling processes in all three countries: NGOs and private sector are respectively over- and under-represented in the MSP networks. Linkages between local and higher levels are weak, and influential organisations (e.g., high-level government actors) are often not part of the MSP or are not actively linked to by other organisations. Organisations with a central position in the knowledge network are more sought out for collaboration. The scaling of innovations is primarily between the same type of organisations across different administrative levels, but not between different types of organisations. The results illustrate the potential of Social Network Analysis and ERGMs to identify the strengths and limitations of MSPs in terms of achieving development impacts.